من سايكس بيكو الى صفقة القرن

د: هشام عوكل استاذ ادارة الازمات والعلاقات الدولية 

مقدمة

شبكة المدار الإعلامية الأوربية …_ منذ إعلان الرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترامب القدس «عاصمة لإسرائيل» أو نقل سفارة بلاده إليها، أظهرت بعد مراكز القرار والدارسات العربية والفضائيات التي تعمل بنظام الصدمات انها مناورة أولى متّفقاً عليها لبدء سقف مرتفع للمفاوضات لتحصيل أكبر قدر من التنازلات، وربما تكون خطوة استفزازية حقيقية.مقدمة صفقة القرن مصطلحان وردا على لسان الرئيس الأمريكي دونالد ترامب، ورئيس النظام المصري عبد الفتاح السيسي، ويقصد بهما التوصل إلى تسوية للصراع العربي مع كيان الاحتلال الإسرائيلي لفلسطين؛ باعتبار احتلال فلسطين (قضية القرن)، وأن الصفقة إذا ما تمت تستحق أن تُعدَّ (صفقة القرن)، وقد مر قرن (100 عام) وعام، على الاتفاقية السرية التي وقعتها القوتان الاستعماريتان الرئيسيتان للمنطقة العربية حينها؛ بريطانيا وفرنسا، والتي[1] تم بموجبها تقاسُم تركة الدولة العثمانية بعد هزيمتها في الحرب العالمية الأولى، وعرفت لاحقاً باسم اتفاقية (سايكس-بيكو) في العام 1916، والتي كان احتلال فلسطين هدفها المركزي بعد إنهاء الخلافة العثمانية وتقسيم المنطقة العربية إلى كنتونات سياسية.تأتي محاولات عقد صفقة القرن في ظل توقف المفاوضات الفلسطينية الإسرائيلية منذ عام 2014، والمنطقة العربية تشهد صراعات متعددة وحروباً إقليمية بالوكالة في أكثر من ساحة، ولم يعد الصراع العربي الإسرائيلي هو الوحيد في المنطقة والمجمع عليه عربياً، حيث اختلفت الأولويات واتجاهات المخاطر، وظهر من يجاهر بأن كيان الاحتلال الإسرائيلي لم يعد هو المهدد الرئيسي لاستقرار المنطقة، وتبنت بعض الأصوات المطالبة بضرورة إشراكه في مواجهات الخطر الإيراني وأدواته في المنطقة.تباينــت القــراءات حــول طبيعــة صفقــة القــرن، وأهدافهــا، فبينمــا تقــول إدارة الرئيــس أمريكي دونالـد ترامـب وحلفاؤهـا مـن الأنظمة العربيـة بـأن غايتهـا التوصـل إلـى حـل شـامل للصـراع العربـي الإسرائيلي، قـرأت قيـادات حـركات المقاومة، ونخبـة مـن المفكرين، في الصفقـة،محاولـة مـن قبـل إدارة ترامـب وكيـان الاحتلال الإسرائيلي والمتعاون معهـا الاستغلال الظـروف التــي تمر بهــا دول المنطقة العربيــة، وحالة اليــأس التــي دبــت في نفــوس بعــض المجتمعات العربيــة مــن جــراء طــول أمــد الصــراع وغيــاب الأفق، خاصــة بعــد تكاثــر بــؤر الصراعــات في المنطقة العربيـة وثمة مؤشرات على أن “صفقة القرن” هذه، هي من إنتاج أنظمة عربية بالأساس، هدفها إرضاء أميركا وإسرائيل لتضمن هذه الأنظمة مواصلة جلوسها على كرسي الحكم، ولغضّ النظر عما تقترفه من تجاوزات في مجال حقوق الإنسان، فالولايات المتحدة تلقفت الصفقة، وتعمل على اعادة انتاجها لعرضها كمشروع سلام أميركي.فمن الناحية الفلسطينية،.فهذه الصفقة، تهدف إلى عدة امور أهمها: ابقاء القدس والبلدة القديمة تحت سلطة الاحتلال، مع استبعاد اللاجئين، والابقاء على المستوطنات، وعدم إقامة الدولة الفلسطينية على حدود1967، وان حكما ذاتيا موسعا سيقام في الضفة الغربية.

كي لا نذهب بعيدا

السفير الإسرائيلي روبي سيفيل، الذي عمل مستشارا سياسيا بسفارة بلدة بواشنطن[2]، وهو عضو فريق التفاوض الإسرائيلي مع مصر والأردن والفلسطينيين، قال إن اتفاقية سايكس-بيكو تواجه اليوم مخاطر جدية، ويتطلب من إسرائيل إعداد مسودات حلول متوقعة للصراع مع الفلسطينيين لاحتمال تطرق الاتفاق الجديد له.مؤكدا، أن هناك حاجة ملحة ليقدم اللاعبون الإقليميون مقترحات جديدة بديلة عن اتفاقية سايكس-بيكو القديمة، في إطار المحاولات لوقف تدخلات القوى العظمى الخارجية في شؤون المنطقة، وما قد تحدثه من فوضى مستمرة خدمة لمصالحها الاستراتيجية.يتطلب تفاهمات واسعة بين الولايات المتحدة وروسيا والاتحاد الأوروبي، وفي فترة لاحقة تنضم إليها دول إقليمية فاعلة مثل مصر والسعودية والأردن وإيران وتركيا، على أن يُطلب من دول المنطقة الرئيسية هذه في نهاية المرحلة الثالثة الموافقة على المقترحات الجديدة.البروفيسور عوديد عيران، الرئيس السابق لمعهد أبحاث الأمن القومي في إسرائيل وسفير إسرائيل السابق في الأردن والاتحاد الأوروبي، فيرى أن ثمة فروقا مهمة بين عامي 1916 تاريخ إعلان اتفاق سايكس بيكو القديم، و2016 ومن أهم تلك الفروق -في رأيه-غياب القوى الكبرى التي تستطيع فرض حلول فوقية على دول المنطقة كما حصل مع سايكس-بيكو، وذلك في ظل امتناع الدول الكبرى عن نشر قواتها العسكرية في المنطقة.وقال عيران، إنه من المبكر طرح اتفاق سايكس-بيكو جديد، لكن من الواضح أن هناك نقاشات لوضع ترتيبات سياسية في الشرق الأوسط تتعامل مع المتغيرات المتلاحقة التي شهدتها المنطقة خلال المئة عام الماضية.وإن انهيار سايكس-بيكو في ضوء التطورات الميدانية الأخيرة في الدول التي استهدفتها الاتفاقية، تلقي بظلالها السالبة على الصراع بين الإسرائيليين والفلسطينيين تدفع به نحو طريق مسدود. مستبعد أن تغامر أي حكومة إسرائيلية بتقديم حلول سياسية للصراع القائم في ظل الظروف الإقليمية الراهنة، “لأن على العرب والإسرائيليين على حد سواء أن يتذكروا دائما أن اتفاقية سايكس-بيكو صُممت وطُبِّقت من قبل قوى خارجية، قامت بالتدخل في شؤون المنطقة”.المستشرق إيتماررابينوفيتش الرئيس السابق لجامعة تل أبيب والذي شغل سابقا منصب سفير إسرائيل في الولايات المتحدة في دراسته إن الحروب الأهلية التي تشهدها بعض دول المنطقة، بجانب ظهور عدد من الجماعات الإسلامية، يجعل من الصعوبة بمكان أن تظل اتفاقية سايكس-بيكو بالتأثير ذاته، خاصة مع بروز خلافات إثنية دينية وعرقية، مما يتطلب اتفاقا جديدا دون الحاجة لإقامة دول فاشلة لا تمتلك الكثير من مقومات البقاء من النواحي الاقتصادية والسياسية.قائلاأن التطورات الحاصلة في الشرق الأوسط ربما تحتاج لإعادة ترسيم الحدود، مثل إقامة كونفدراليات أو فدراليات، “رغم أن القوى المتقاتلة والأقليات المتخوفة لم تصل بعد إلى مرحلة التهيئة الكاملة لمثل هذه الحلول”.

الماضي والحاضر بصفقة القرن

عاد الحديث إلى النظرية والمشروع الذي أرسى أسسه إيغال آلون القائد العسكري الفظ والوزير صاحب النفوذ في مناصب وزارية متلاحقة ويشار إليه بمشروع “آلون” أو الترانسفير، وقد تطور الآن إلى ما يسمي مشروع القرن، وأحدث ما سمعناه من مصادر أمريكية علاوة على تصريحات وتغريدات متناثرة من الرئيس الأمريكي [3]هو ما جاء في حوار مع برنامج Talk موقع «والا» الإسرائيلي حيث قال ديفيد فريدمان، السفير الأمريكي لدى تل أبيب، إن الإدارة الأمريكية تُعدّ الآن خطة سلام ستُعرض ملامحها في غضون أشهر قليلة، وإن حل الدولتين الفلسطينية والإسرائيلية لا يتضمنها، بعد أن أصبح بلا معنى كما سيتم نقل مقر السفارة الأمريكية من تل أبيب للقدس، حسب وعد الرئيس دونالد ترامب كما سيتم اعتبار القدس عاصمة أبدية لإسرائيل كما أكد فريدمان أن المستوطنات جزء لا يتجزأ من دولة إسرائيل. في ظل التحركات التي تشرف عليها الإدارة الأميركية برئاسة ترامب، للتوصل إلى حل إقليمي يتواءم مع المصالح الأميركية في المنطقة، وحلفتيها المقربتين، السعودية بقيادة محمد بن سلمان، وإسرائيل بقيادة نتنياهو ويصاحب هذا المشروع تخوفا إسرائيليا أمريكيا من النفوذ الإيراني، وهكذا سيكون الطرف الفلسطيني هو الخاسر الأكبر في حلقة ضغط تمثلها الولايات المتحدة والسعودية ومصر وتجري اتصالات جدية في هذا الشأن بين تل أبيب وواشنطن رون ديرمر سفير إسرائيل، ومن الجانب الأميركي “فريق السلام في الشرق الأوسط”، الذي يرأسه كبير مستشاري البيت الأبيض، وصهر الرئيس جاريدكوشنر، والمبعوث الأميركي الخاص إلى الشرق الأوسط، جيسون جرينبلات.ويرى ترامب أن “هناك مصالح مشتركة بين الأطراف الأكثر برجماتية في المنطقة بقيادة مصر والسعودية (ونفوذ ولي العهد الأمير محمد بن سلمان) بقصد إضعاف الطموحات التوسعية الإيرانية في المنطقة ومكافحة ما يسمونه الإرهاب المتطرف”. مما قد يضغط باتجاه مفاوضات بين إسرائيل والفلسطينيين نحو تحقيق المشروع ويوصف المخطط بأنه “سلام أميركي” بصياغة ترامب، تكون فيه إيران “العدو المشترك” في المنطقة، في حين تكون الولايات المتحدة “الصديق المشترك”

محددات الأمن القومي والعربي امام صفقة القرن ودور الأنظمة

نستطيع أن نقول إن هناك تغيرا في الرؤية العربية للأمن القومي وبالتالي عندما نتحدث عن الأمن القومي نتحدث عن أمن قطري أو أمن منطقة ومن ثم عندما نتحدث عن أمن قومي للقطر على سبيل المثال، أمن من؟ هل أمن الشعب؟ أمن الحاكم؟ ومن يحدد هذه الرؤية؟ هل هو الخارج الذي يتحدانا ويسيطر علينا؟ هل هو الداخل الذي لديه أجندة؟ لأن محددات الأمن القومي والعربي مدخل منهجي واستراتيجي لأنه بسببه وبفعله نحدد سياسات وليس فقط تنظيرا.هناك متغير خطير على مستوى المفاهيم وعلى مستوى الرؤية السياسية لمفهوم الأمن القومي، هذا المتغير الخطير يمكن نلمسه في أكثر من مفصل بالدرجة الرئيسية تحول هم البلدان العربية لحماية أنظمتها على حساب مصير الأمة ومستقبلها وخياراتها التاريخية وبالتالي انتقلنا من مفهوم أمن قومي للأمة بالمعنى الجماعي إلى أمن أنظمة.لذا أصبحالنظام العربي الرسمي أصبح ضمن منظومة مصادر الخطر على الأمن القومي، استقطابات جديدة، لا سيما على خلفية التمزق أو الانهيار على مستوى الدولة والمجتمع في المشرق العربي، ووجود تطلعات إقليمية تستفيد من الحالة العربية الراهنة بعد انحسار المقاومة بعد التحولات العربية ومعاهدات السلام، وتوريط الجيشين العربيين العراقي والسوري في محاربة الإرهاب.مشروعات التسوية المتعاقبة من اتفاقيات أوسلو 1993 ومفاوضات كامب ديفيد 2 في عهد الرئيس بيل كلينتون، و”خريطة الطريق” (2003) وبعدها اتفاق الإطار في “مسار أنابوليس.” (2007) كل تلك المفاوضات لم تزد إسرائيل إلا تعنتا وإنكارا لحقوق الشعب الفلسطيني، ولم يمنع إسرائيل من التوسع في الضفة وبناء مستعمرات جديدة.المخطّط الإسرائيلي لتوطين الفلسطينيين له تاريخ طويل منذ الخمسينات بدأ منذ 1953، وهو منشور في كتاب اسمه “خنجر إسرائيل” والكتاب عبارة عن تصريحات موشيه ديان وزير الحرب الإسرائيلي وقتها عن خطته لتقسيم العرب واحتلالهم.

ويتصل بذلك ما نشر بالمجلة الدورية لوزارة الدفاع الأميركية سنة 2003 [4]بنشر خرائط تقسيم الدول العربية التي وضعها اليهودي برنارد لويس وبها إشارة لهذا المخطط، وفي سنة 2005 نفّذت الحكومة الإسرائيلية انسحابا من قطاع غزّة كبداية كما أعلن لبدء تنفيذه.ويشار هنا إلى وثيقة إسرائيلية خطيرة نشرت في عام 2010 وفي 38 صفحة وهي وثيقة مستشار الأمن القومي الإسرائيلي السابق اللواء احتياط، جيوراإيلاند، ويطرح فيها أن مملكة الأردن هي دولة الفلسطينيين، وبوضعها الجديد ستكون من ثلاثة أقاليم تضمّ الضفّتين الغربية والشرقية وغزّة الكبرى التي تأخذ جزءاً من مصر تنقل مصر إلى غزّة مناطق مساحتها نحو 720 كيلومترا. وتشمل هذه المنطقة جزءا من الشريط المبني الممتد على طول 24 كيلومتراً على طول شاطئ البحر المتوسط من رفح غرباً حتي العريش. بالإضافة إلى شريط يقع غرب كرم سالم جنوباً، ويمتد على طول الحدود بين إسرائيل ومصر.

_…شبكة المدار الإعلامية الأوربية …_

[1]الصفاريمطهر،مركز الفكر الاستراتيجي للدراسات: فلسطينصفقة القرن الفرص والتحديات، 04 أكتوبر 2017

[2]الجزيرة قناة،إسرائيل تبحث احتمالات “سايكس بيكو” جديدة27/5/2016

[3]يسري إبراهيم،موقع عربي 21 الكتروني: مقال تحت عنوان العرب ثورة القرن أم صفقة القرن،07 ديسمبر 2017

[4]موقع http://wedkona1.blogspot.be خرائط ووثائق

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