مستقبل الاندماج الأوروبي في ضوء خروج المملكة المتحدة

هايدي عصمت كارس

كلية الاقتصاد والعلوم السياسية، جامعة القاهرة

شبكة المدار الإعلامية الأوربية …_ في 23 يونيو 2016، جاءت نتيجة الاستفتاء على عضوية المملكة المتحدة في الاتحاد الأوروبي لمصلحة الخروج من الاتحاد. أدي ذلك إلى صدمة عالمية وصلت آثارها إلى أسواق المال العالمية والآسيوية. وبدأ العديد من التساؤلات حول آثار هذه الخروج على المملكة المتحدة، وعلى مستقبل تجربة الاندماج الأوروبي.

أولا- قدرة نظريات التكامل على تفسير التفكك Disintegration:

وفق دوجلاس ويبر” Douglas Webber”، يعني التفكك الأوروبي الانخفاض في عدد أعضاء الاتحاد، أو في حجم السياسات المشتركة التي يستطيع الاتحاد تبنيها وتنفيذها، أو في قدرة أجهزته على اتخاذ وتنفيذ قرارات، حتي وإن كانت ضد إرادة الدول الأعضاء، وفق الصلاحيات المخولة لها من قبل الاتفاقيات(1)بناء على هذا التعريف، فقد شهد الاتحاد بالفعل مستوي من التفكك، ولكن يزال التساؤل المطروح حول إذا ما كان ذلك سيدفع إلى مزيد من التفكك، وانهيار الاتحاد، أم لا. اختلفت النظريات حول الشروط التي قد تؤدي لتفكك الاتحاد الأوروبي، وستكتفي الدراسة في هذا الصدد بعرض ما قام بهWebber  من حصر لهذه الشروط(2). فوفقا للنظرية عبر القومية الكلاسيكية (Classical Inter-governmentalism)، يعد العامل الأهم غياب التعاون بين ألمانيا وفرنسا. أما النظرية المؤسسية في العلاقات الدولية (IR Institutionalism) (روبرت كوهين)، فتري أن غياب المصالح المشتركة قد يعد العامل الحاسم. أما النظرية الوظيفية الجديدة (neo- functionalism)، فأقرت بإمكانية حدوث ارتداد في الاندماج Spill Back، مثلما حدث بالفعل مع خروج المملكة المتحدة، ولكنها تري أن المؤسسات فوق القومية ستحد من حدوث التفكك.مما سبق، يمكن الإشارة إلى انخفاض احتمالية انهيار الاتحاد الأوروبي، ولكن العوامل الداخلية في البلدان الأوروبية المسكوت عنها في هذه النظريات قد تكون الحاسمة في تحديد مستقبل الاتحاد الأوروبي.

ثانيا- مسيرة الاندماج الأوروبي بين النجاح والأزمات:

يمثل الاتحاد الأوروبي أنجح تجارب التكامل الإقليمي. وبالرغم مما يعانيه حاليا من أزمات، فذلك لا ينفي ما استطاع القيام به من إنجازات(3)، بداية من الجماعة الأوروبية للفحم والصلب، وإعادة بناء أوروبا بعد الحرب العالمية الثانية، مرورا بالجماعة الاقتصادية الأوروبية، وإنشاء الاتحاد الجمركي، ثم السوق الموحدة، مما ساعد على النمو الاقتصادي، وصولا إلى دور الاندماج الأوروبي في تحقيق الاستقرار في القارة بعد ما شهدته من دمار، خلال النصف الأول من القرن العشرين. وفي العقود الأخيرة، ساعد الاتحاد الأوروبي دول وسط وشرق أوروبا في ترسيخ الديمقراطية عقب انهيار الاتحاد السوفيتي.

 

اقترن تطور مشروع الاندماج الأوروبي منذ بدايته بالأزمات التي مر بها في تحقيق بعض الأهداف، أو بعض السياسات(4). فقد استطاعت عملية الاندماج امتصاص الأزمات، والنهوض بعدها. وتختلف الأزمات من حيث طبيعتها، فقد ميزLudgerKuhnhardtبين نوعين من الأزمات، الأولي أزمات الاندماج ،Crises Of Integration، وهي التي تهدد منطق وشرعية الاندماج نفسه. أما الأخري، فهي أزمات في الاندماج Crises In Integration التي تتعلق بالصعوبات في تطبيق بعض أهداف الاتحاد أو سياساته(5).

 

تتعدد الأمثلة التي استطاع الاتحاد فيها مقاومة مختلف أنواع الأزمات، كرفض فرنسا الانضمام إلى الجماعة الدفاعية الأوروبية عام 1954، مما أدي إلى الوصول إلى الجماعة الاقتصادية الأوروبية عام 1958، كما رفضت الدنمارك في عام 1992، من خلال استفتاء، الدخول في اتفاقية ماستريخت، مما دفع إلى ابتكار فكرة الانسحاب من بعض المواد “Opting Out Clauses”، إلا أنها عادت ووافقت في استفتاء آخر. وفي الفترة من عام 2002 حتي عام 2007، واجه الاتحاد خلافا حول مشروع الدستور الأوروبي، وانتهي برفضه في استفتاء شعبي في فرنسا وهولندا، فتم التوصل إلى اتفاقية لشبونة بعدّها بديلا، أو -إن جاز التعبير- تخفيفا لمشروع الدستور.

 

جاء خروج المملكة المتحدة في وقت يعاني فيه الاتحاد حالة أزمة، نتيجة عدة عوامل مترابطة ومتشابكة. فلا يزال الاتحاد الأوروبي يعاني تداعيات أزمة منطقة اليورو. ففي عام 2015، كانت اليونان على شفا الخروج من منطقة اليورو، إلي أن تم التوصل لاتفاق حول حزمة إنقاذ ثالثة تمكنها من الوفاء بديونها. و بالرغم من تحقيق الاتحاد قدرا من الانتعاش الاقتصادي الذي أسهم فيه انخفاض أسعار الطاقة، بجانب عوامل أخري، فإنه لا يزال يعاني انخفاض معدلات النمو، وارتفاع معدلات البطالة(6).

 

من ناحية أخري، فقد عانت أوروبا تدفقات كبيرة من اللاجئين خلال عام 2015 من تركيا إلى اليونان، وعبر المتوسط إلى إيطاليا، مرورا بدول، مثل كرواتيا، وسلوفاكيا، والمجر، وصولا إلى النمسا، ومنها إلى ألمانيا. واقترن بالأزمة صعوبة تطبيق الإجراءات الأوروبية الحاكمة لذلك، المتمثلة في معاهدة “دبلن” التي تحمل مسئولية التعامل مع اللاجئين ودراسة حالتهم مع أول دولة أوروبية يصلون إليها، وهو ما كان مستحيلا مع تدفقات وصلت إلى مئات الآلاف.

 

وظهر خلال الأزمة انقسام حاد بين الدول الأعضاء، خاصة على خلفية قرار وضع حصص تلتزم كل دولة عضو باستقبالها، وفقا لعدد السكان، وإجمالي الناتج القومي، ومعدل البطالة. والدولة التي ترفض استقبال حصتها يتم تغريمها. مر هذا القرار بالأغلبية المؤهلة فقط، ولقي معارضة شديدة من العديد من دول وسط وشرق أوروبا، بل قام رئيس الوزراء المجري اليميني بطرح هذا القرار للاستفتاء خلال أكتوبر .2016

 

مع أزمة منطقة اليورو، وتبني سياسات تقشفية، وانخفاض معدلات النمو، وارتفاع نسبة البطالة، زاد عدم رضا الرأي العام الأوروبي عن الاتحاد، ودفع ذلك إلى تنامي صعود التيارات الشعبوية اليمينية المتطرفة في أوروبا، المتشككة في الاتحاد الأوروبي، والرافضة لسياسات التقشف الاقتصادي، والمنددة بالنخب الحاكمة، والمعادية للهجرة، بل وتربط بين الهجرة والأزمات الاقتصادية.

 

يعد صعود هذه التيارات، وتزايد شعبيتها بمنزلة الأزمة الكبري التي تواجه الاتحاد الاوروبي، بل تم وصفها بكونها صفائح تكتونية تهدد بزلزلة الاتحاد وانهياره(7). فأصبحت هذه التيارات تمثل تهديدا للتيارات الرئيسية، سواء اليمين أو اليسار(8)، وذلك ما بات جليا، على سبيل المثال، في انتخابات البرلمان الأوروبي عام 2014، حيث استطاعت أحزاب اليمين المتطرف تحقيق قدر من المكاسب على حساب الأحزاب الرئيسية. اقترن بذلك ما سماه بعض الدراسات “تسييس الاندماج الأوروبي”، حيث تم الدفع به كإحدي قضايا الجدال والصراع بين التيارات السياسية المختلفة في الانتخابات بالدول الأعضاء(9).

 

ثالثا- أسباب خروج المملكة المتحدة من الاتحاد الأوروبي:

 

مع الزلزال السياسي والاقتصادي، وحالة عدم اليقين التي صاحبت التصويت لمصلحة خروج المملكة المتحدة من الاتحاد الأوروبي، تصدر الاهتمام التساؤل حول الأسباب التي دفعت رئيس الوزراء البريطاني ديفيد كاميرون إلى الدعوة للاستفتاء، وأسباب التصويت لمصلحة الخروج من الاتحاد الأوروبي. وتكمن هذه الأسباب تكمن في:

 

أ- أسباب الدعوة للاستفتاء على عضوية المملكة المتحدة في الاتحاد الأوروبي:

 

فمنذ أن انضمت المملكة المتحدة إلى عضوية الجماعة الاقتصادية الأوروبية عام 1973، وعلاقتها بأوروبا محل خلاف بين الحين والآخر. ففي عام 1975، دعت حكومة حزب العمال الحاكمة إلى استفتاء على عضوية المملكة المتحدة، ونتج عن الاستفتاء موافقة بنسبة 67 على البقاء(10). وفي عام 1983، سعي حزب العمال إلى الفوز بالانتخابات العامة على أجندة الخروج من الجماعة الأوروبية، ولكن نتج عن الانتخابات فوز حزب المحافظين بقيادة مارجريت تاتشر.

 

وفي التسعينيات، انقسمت حكومة حزب المحافظين، بقيادة جون ماجور، حول اتفاقية ماستريخت ما بين المتشككين تجاه أوروبا، والمؤيدين لها. أدي هذا الصراع في النهاية إلى ضعف شعبية الحزب وخسارته في الانتخابات. وأخيرا، ومع عام 2010، انقسم حزب المحافظين مجددا وحكومته، بقيادة كاميرون، حول علاقة المملكة المتحدة بالاتحاد الأوروبي.

 

ثم جاءت دعوة كاميرون للاستفتاء في هذا التوقيت نتيجة العديد من العوامل. فمن ناحية، فقد وجد انقساما داخل حكومته وفي حزب المحافظين حول أوروبا، مما هدد بتمزيق الحزب، خاصة في ظل مطالبة نواب المقاعد الخلفية المتشككين تجاه الاتحاد بالقيام باستفتاء على عضوية بريطانيا في الاتحاد الأوروبي (في أكتوبر 2011، دعم 81 من النواب المحافظين ذلك الاستفتاء)(11).

 

من ناحية أخري، أسهم صعود حزب “استقلال المملكة المتحدة” وخطابه المتشكك في الاتحاد والمهاجم للهجرة -وصل البعض للقول إن الحزب لا يستغل قضية الهجرة، بل ينشئها- في زيادة الضغط على حزب المحافظين وكاميرون، خاصة في ظل التخوف من حصاده مقاعد المحافظين في الانتخابات العامة عام 2015. لذا في يناير 2013، تعهد كاميرون بالتفاوض مع الاتحاد الأوروبي على علاقة بريطانيا به، ثم الدعوة لاستفتاء مع نهاية عام 2017. جاء هذا التعهد من قبل رئيس الوزراء البريطاني، في ظل التأكد من قبل قيادات حزب المحافظين من عدم قدرة الحزب على الفوز بالأغلبية المطلقة التي تمكنه من تشكيل الحكومة منفردا، وأنه سيستمر في حكومة ائتلافية مع الحزب الليبرالي الديمقراطي، مما يعرقل تنفيذ مثل هذا التعهد.

 

لكن على عكس المتوقع، استطاع حزب المحافظين الفوز بالأغلبية المطلقة، وتشكيل الحكومة منفردا، فأصبح من الصعب التراجع عن التعهد بعقد الاستفتاء الذي فاز على خلفيته. لذا، يري البعض أن الدعوة للاستفتاء كانت نتيجة حسابات خاطئة من قبل كاميرون Political Malpractice(12).

 

ب- أسباب التصويت لمصلحة خروج المملكة المتحدة من الاتحاد الأوروبي:

 

بالرغم من أهمية الوقوف على الأسباب التي دفعت ديفيد كاميرون إلى الدعوة للاستفتاء، فإن الأهم هو التعرف على العوامل التي أدت إلى التصويت لمصلحة خروج بريطانيا من الاتحاد الأوروبي.

 

في الثمانينيات من القرن المنصرم، ظهر مفهوم التشكك في الاتحاد الأوروبي “Eurosecptic”، وقد ارتبط ببريطانيا، ومنها انتشر إلى باقي أوروبا. وقد تعددت تعريفاته ما بين التخوف من زيادة صلاحيات الاتحاد الأوروبي على حساب سيادة بريطانيا، وصولا إلى رفض عضوية بريطانيا في الاتحاد الأوروبي (ومن قبلها الجماعة الأوروبية).

 

وعلى مدى تاريخ مشروع الاندماج الأوروبي، يمكن تتبع تشكك النخب الحاكمة فيه، منذ رفض العديد من الحكومات الانضمام لأطر التعاون التي تم طرحها من قبل ألمانيا وفرنسا، مرورا بالتخوف من زيادة صلاحيات الجماعة الأوروبية، كرفض مارجريت تاتشر مشروع العملة الموحدة، ونزاعها حول إسهام بريطانيا في الميزانية الأوروبية، وصولا للصراع في حكومة جون ماجور في التسعينيات.

 

يري البعض أن للتشكك البريطاني في الاندماج الأوروبي جذوره التاريخية والثقافية، منها التحامل ضد فرنسا، ثم ألمانيا، والتحيز إلى العلاقات مع الكومنولث والولايات المتحدة، والتخوف من المساس بالسيادة البرلمانية(13).

 

بالرغم من ظهور المتشككين تجاه الاتحاد منذ انضمام المملكة المتحدة له، فإن سنوات الرخاء الاقتصادي مع بداية الألفية الثالثة، وفي ظل “توني بلير، خفضت من ذلك ليعود مرة أخري التشكك تجاه الاتحاد مع الأزمة الاقتصادية مع نهاية العقد. وقد جاء الاستفتاء في وقت تحصد فيه التيارات الشعبوية اليمينية المتشككة في أوروبا شعبية في مواجهة النخب والتيارات الرئيسية.

 

كما تعد قضية الهجرة العامل الأهم للتصويت لمصلحة الخروج من الاتحاد، في ظل عدم الرضا عن زيادة أعداد المهاجرين، خاصة من وسط أوروبا، بعد توسع الاتحاد شرقا في عامي 2004 و2007، وذلك في ظل عدم قدرة أي من المسئولين على التعامل مع الرأي العام الرافض للضغط الذي تشكله الهجرة على سوق العمل والخدمات العامة.

 

أسهم في ذلك أيضا عدم قدرة كاميرون على الوفاء بتعهده قبل انتخابات عام 2010 بتخفيض عدد المهاجرين، بل ورفعه للتوقعات بالقول بإمكانية الحد من حرية حركة العمالة في مفاوضاته حول علاقة بريطانيا بالاتحاد الأوروبي، ولكنه اقتصر في المفاوضات النهائية على التوصل إلى عدم حصول المهاجرين على أي منافع خلال السنوات الأربع الأولي من إقامتهم. وبالرغم من تصويره لذلك بعدّه نجاحا، فإنه دعم في الرأي العام الاعتقاد بعدم مرونة “بروكسل” وعدم قدرتها على القيام بتنازلات لبقاء بريطانيا في الاتحاد.وأسهم أيضا في زيادة عدم الرضا الشعبي عن الهجرة صعود حزب “استقلال المملكة المتحدة”، على خلفية أجندة تتمركز حول رفض المهاجرين. فالظهور الإعلامي المتكرر لزعيمه نايجل فاراج أسهم في الربط بين الهجرة والاتحاد الأوروبي، والادعاء بأن الخروج من الاتحاد الاوروبي سيؤدي إلى عودة السيطرة مرة أخري لبريطانيا على أعداد المهاجرين.بالإضافة إلى رفض الهجرة، سعت الحملة الداعمة للخروج إلى التركيز على فقدان المملكة المتحدة لسيادتها لمصلحة المفوضية الاوروبية غير المنتخبة.وهناك عوامل أخري أضعفت من الحملة الداعمة للبقاء في الاتحاد. فمن ناحية، انقسمت الحكومة البريطانية ما بين المؤيدين للبقاء، ومنهم كاميرون، ووزير المالية جورج أوزبورن، والمؤيدين للخروج، ومنهم بوريس جونسون، وميشيل جوف، وهما من الشخصيات البارزة في الحكومة والحزب. من ناحية أخري، ضعف دعم حزب العمال لحملة البقاء. وقد أرجع البعض ذلك لموقف رئيسه جيريمي كوربن في الماضي الرافض للاتحاد، نتيجة ما تتبناه المفوضية من سياسات داعمة لحرية السوق(14).

رابعا- تداعيات التصويت لمصلحة خروج المملكة المتحدة من الاتحاد الأوروبي:

وهنا، تتعدد التداعيات ما بين تداعيات على المستوي البريطاني، وأخري على المستوي الأوروبي.

أ- على المستوي البريطاني: فهناك  تهديد لمستقبل المملكة المتحدة كدولة قومية موحدة. فعقب إعلان النتائج التي أظهرت تأييد اسكتلندا للبقاء في الاتحاد الأوروبي، سرعان ما أعربت الوزيرة الأولي في اسكتلندا، نيكولا ستيرجن، عن الحاجة إلى إجراء استفتاء جديد العام المقبل على استقلال اسكتلندا عن المملكة المتحدة. فمن الملاحظ أنه من بين المفارقات أن الحملة التي تبنتها الحكومة البريطانية لإقناع المصوت الاسكتلندي بالتصويت لمصلحة البقاء في المملكة المتحدة قامت على أساس أن اسكتلندا ستفقد عضويتها في الاتحاد الأوروبي إذا استقلت. والآن واسكتلندا جزء من المملكة المتحدة، ستفقد عضويتها في الاتحاد الأوروبي. وقد قامت الوزيرة الأولي بجولة أوروبية في محاولة للتفاوض على وضع خاص لاسكتلندا، لكن ذلك لم يحظ بالقبول بعدّه شأنا داخليا لبريطانيا. لم يقتصر الأمر على اسكتلندا، بل ظهرت دعوات في أيرلندا الشمالية إلى القيام باستفتاء لتوحيد أيرلندا.

 

واقتصاديا، عاني الجنيه الإسترليني انخفاضا لم يشهده منذ عقود. على المدى الطويل، سيكون لخروج بريطانيا تأثيراته في لندن كمركز مالي، وفي التجارة ومستوي المعيشة، وقدرة بريطانيا التفاوضية على الدخول في اتفاقيات تجارة حرة مع دول أخري. ولكن حجم التأثير الاقتصادي يتوقف على شكل الاتفاق الذي سيتم التوصل إليه مع الاتحاد الأوروبي.سياسيا، تواجه المملكة المتحدة رأيا عاما، وأحزابا تعاني انقساما. علاوة على ذلك، سيتأثر العديد من القطاعات كالقطاع الصحي، حيث يمثل الأوروبيون الجزء الأكبر من العاملين فيه(15)، والقطاع الزراعي(16).

ب- التداعيات على مستوي الاتحاد الأوروبي: حيث يواجه تحديا ضخما بخروج دولة بحجم المملكة المتحدة، التي تمثل واحدة من الدول الثلاث الكبري، إلى جانب ألمانيا وفرنسا. فمثلا، تمثل صادرات بريطانيا إلى خارج الاتحاد الأوروبي 19.4 من إجمالي صادرات ذلك الأخير(17)، وتسهم بنحو 8.5 مليار يورو في ميزانية الاتحاد (عام 2015)، إلى جانب كونها ثالث أكبر دولة من حيث عدد السكان، مما يجعلها سوقا ضخمة، ولاعبا مؤثرا في عملية صنع القرار، بالإضافة إلى دورها على الساحة الدولية، وإمكانياتها العسكرية الضخمة.

ويمكن تصنيف تداعيات خروج المملكة المتحدة على الاتحاد الأوروبي إلى مستويين، أولهما يتناول مستقبل مسيرة الاندماج الأوروبي، وثانيهما يتناول  مختلف جوانب عمل الاتحاد الأوروبي.

1- مستقبل مسيرة الاندماج الأوروبي:

يمكن حصر سيناريوهات تأثير الخروج البريطاني في مستقبل الاندماج الأوروبي في ثلاثة بدائل:

السيناريو الأول:ضعف الاتحاد نتيجة خروج بريطانيا، مما يؤدي في النهاية إلى تفككه.

السيناريو الثاني:يستمر الاتحاد في التخبط للتعامل مع هذه الأزمة الجديدة.

السيناريو الثالث والأخير: يؤدي خروج بريطانيا إلى مزيد من الاندماج.

بالرغم من تعدد السيناريوهات، فإن السيناريو الأقرب هو بقاء الاتحاد في الأمد المنظور، وسعيه لمواجهة هذه الأزمة الجديدة “Muddling Through”. إلا أن المخرج النهائي لهذا السعي قد ينتهي في اتجاه مزيد من الاندماج، خاصة في إدارة منطقة اليورو، أو إعادة مزيد من السيطرة للدول الأعضاء في بعض المجالات. يتوقف ذلك على ما سيئول إليه الانقسام الذي يعانيه الاتحاد بين دوله الأعضاء، وبداخل هذه الدول.

2- تأثير خروج المملكة المتحدة في مجالات عمل الاتحاد الأوروبي:

حيث يمكن رصد أهم هذه التأثيرات في المجالات الآتية:

– توازن القوة وصناعة القرار في الاتحاد الأوروبي: حيث يتجه معظم التحليلات إلى تغير توازن القوة لمصلحة ألمانيا، كونها القوة الاقتصادية الكبري في الاتحاد القادرة على التأثير. وعقب إعلان نتيجة الاستفتاء، بدأ ثلاثي جديد في التشكل، تحل فيه إيطاليا محل بريطانيا، بجانب كل من فرنسا وألمانيا(18).

أما عن توزيع القوة داخل مؤسسات الاتحاد، فبالنسبة لمجلس الاتحاد الأوروبي، الذي يتحدد التصويت فيه بناء على نسبة عدد السكان، فخروج بريطانيا سيأتي في مصلحة زيادة نفوذ الدول الكبري على حساب الدول الصغري(19). ولن يقتصر التأثير على المجلس فقط، ولكنه سيمتد إلى تغير الخريطة الأيديولوجية للبرلمان الأوروبي، وفق تشكيله الحالي، فما يقرب من 60 من أعضاء البرلمان البريطانيين ينتمون إلى يمين الوسط، مما يقوي من اليسار، والتيارات الاشتراكية الديمقراطية(20).

– في المجال الاقتصادي: يطرح خروج بريطانيا العديد من التساؤلات والسيناريوهات حول مستقبل الاقتصاد الأوروبي. فمن ناحية، قد يصبح اليورو أساس الاتحاد الأوروبي، والقوة الدافعة له، بدلا من السوق الموحدة. بل قد يدفع ذلك إلى مزيد من الاندماج في منطقة اليورو، (مع ملاحظة صعوبة ذلك في المدى القريب نتيجة الخلافات الألمانية – الفرنسية حول التعامل مع أزمة اليورو، والانتخابات في كل منهما عام 2017).

ومن ناحية أخري، يري البعض إمكانية اتجاه الاتحاد إلى مزيد من الحمائية مقابل الليبرالية الاقتصادية، نتيجة خروج المملكة المتحدة، الدولة الأكثر ليبرالية اقتصاديا، والداعمة الكبري لتحرير التجارة، خاصة في الخدمات. إلا أن ذلك ليس صحيحا تماما، في ظل تحولها منذ تولي حكومة كاميرون إلى الحذر من حرية حركة العمالة، بالإضافة إلى تأييد المفوضية الأوروبية لمزيد من تحرير السوق(21).

– على مستوي السياسة الخارجية والدفاعية: بالرغم من الطابع عبر الحكومي للسياسة الخارجية، فإن المملكة المتحدة لها تأثير قوي فيما يتعلق بالسياسة الخارجية في مناقشات المجلس الأوروبي. على سبيل المثال، لعبت دورا رئيسيا في استخدام العقوبات كأداة في السياسة الخارجية، بالإضافة إلى كونها تمتلك مقعدا دائما في مجلس الأمن، وتستفيد هيئة العمل الخارجي الأوروبي من التقارير والتحليلات التي تمتلكها بريطانيا.

 

بالنسبة للسياسة الدفاعية، سيؤثر خروج بريطانيا في حوكمة السياسة الأمنية والدفاعية الأوروبية، فقد قامت السياسة الدفاعية على اتفاق بريطاني – فرنسي عام 1998. لذا، قد يكون أحد البدائل اتفاقا فرنسيا – ألمانيا، خاصة في ظل اتجاه ألمانيا للتخلي عن كونها قوة مدنية(22).

الهوامش :

1- Douglas Webber (2014). How likely is it that the European Union will disintegrate A critical analysis of competing theoretical perspectives. European Journal of International Relations, 20 (2), 342.

2- المرجع السابق، ص ص343-351.

3- Desmond Dinan (2007). Fifty years of European integration: A remarkable achievement. Fordham Int’l LJ, 31, 1118-1142.

4- LudgerKuhnhardt (2011). Crises in European Integration: Challenges and Responses, 1945-2005. Berghahn Books.

5- المرجع السابق، ص1-2.

6- Dermot Hodson  (2016). Eurozone Governance: From the Greek Drama of 2015 to the Five Presidents’ Report. JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, 54 (S1), 150-166.

7- Douglas Webber (2014). How likely is it that the European Union will disintegrate, op.cit, p.351.

8- Sara Hobolt and James Tilley (2016).Fleeing the centre: the rise of challenger parties in the aftermath of the Euro crisis. West European Politics,  39(5), 971-991.

9- HanspeterKriesi (2016). The Politicization of European Integration. JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, 54, 32-47.

10- Rishi Iyengar (2016, June 24). These 3 Facts Explain Why the U.K. Held the “Brexit” Referendum. Time, Retrieved June 30, 2016 from http://time.com/4381184/uk-brexit-european-union-referendum-cameron/

11- Rowena Mason (2016, June 24). How did UK end up voting to leave the European Union. The Guardian, retrieved June 30, 2016 from http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/how-did-uk-end-up-voting-leave-european-union

12- Matthew Harries (2016). Brexit and Political Malpractice. Survival, 58(3), 31-40.

13- Stephen George (2000). Britain: Anatomy of a Eurosceptic state, Journal of European Integration, 22(1), 18.

14- Matthew Harries (2016). Brexit and Political Malpractice, op.cit, p.34.

15- Martin McKee and Michael J. Galsworthy (2016).Brexit: a confused concept that threatens public health. Journal of Public Health, 38(1), 3-5.

16- Wyn Grant (2016). The challenges facing UK farmers from Brexit.EuroChoices, 15(2), 11-16.

17- Tim Oliver (2016, March). What impact would a Brexit have on the EU, Dahrendorf Analysis, LSE Ideas, Retrieved June, 2016 form http://www.lse.ac.uk/IDEAS/pdf/Dahrendorf-pdf/Dahrendorf-Analysis-Brexit-Tim-Oliver.pdf

18- Isla Binni (2016, August 23). Germany, France, Italy say Europe must move forward after Brexit vote. Reuters. Retrieved August 2016 from http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-crisis-meeting-idUKKCN10X15W

19- Laszlo A. Koczy (2016, May). How Brexit affects European Union power distribution. Discussion Papers, MT-DP  11/2016, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences. Retrieved August 2016 from http://real.mtak.hu/1/35682/MTDP.1611pdf

20- Oliver Patel and Christine Reh (2016).Brexit: The Consequences for the EU’s Political System,  UCL Constitution Unit Briefing Paper. Retrieved July 2016 form https://britaineurope.files.wordpress.com/06/2016/briefing-paper-.2pdf

21- Ian Bond, Sophia Besch, AgataGostyska-Jakubowska, Rem Korteweg, Camino Mortera-Martinez and Simon Tilford (2016, April). Europe after Brexit: Unleashed or undone, Centre for European reform. Retrieved July 2016 from https://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default/files/pb_euafterBrexit_15april.16pdf, p.3-4.

22- Karn E. Smith (2016). Would Brexit spell the end of European defence, LSE Blog. Retrieved August 2016, form http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/02/07/2015/would-brexit-spell-the-end-of-european-defence/; Giovanni Faleg (2016, July 26). The Implications of Brexit for the EU’s Common Security and DefencePolicy, Centre for European Policy Studies Commentaries. Retrieved August 2016 form https://www.ceps.eu/publications/implications-brexit-eu’s-common-security-and-defence-policy

-مجله السياسة الدولية (دورية متخصصة في الشئون الدولية تصدر عن مؤسسة الأهرام)

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