مستقبل حلف الناتو بين الأزمة الأوروبية وسياسات ترامب

دكتور محمد أشرف كشك

خبير في قضايا أمن الخليج العربي بمركز البحرين للدراسات الاستراتيجية والدولية والطاقة

شبكة المدار الإعلامية الأوربية …_كان -ولايزال- حلف شمال الأطلسي”الناتو” مثارا للجدل، ليس فقط لكونه إحدى آليات الدول الغربية خلال الحرب الباردة، التي انتهت بانهيار الاتحاد السوفيتي السابق عام 1990، والتي استطاع الحلف التكيف مع السنوات التي تلتها، وإنما بسبب الخلاف داخل الحلف ذاته، سواء بسبب الصراع علي زعامة اللجنتين السياسية أو الأمنية، فضلا عن الجدل حول نسب إسهام أعضاء الحلف الثمانية والعشرين في ميزانية الحلف.

 

حيث بلغ ذلك الجدل مداه خلال الحملة الانتخابية للمرشح الجمهوري دونالد ترامب، والذي وصف الحلف بأنه “شيء من الماضي”. وهي التصريحات التي أثارت الكثير من المخاوف، ليس حول مستقبل الحلف كتحالف أمني للدول الغربية فحسب، بل أيضا لكونه الآلية الدفاعية التي لها وجود فاعل وقدرة علي حسم الأزمات، في ظل بوادر ضعف الاتحاد الأوروبي، علي خلفية الانسحاب البريطاني من تلك المنظومة.

 

ويثير ما سبق أربعة تساؤلات، أولها: ما هي التحديات التي واجهها الحلف منذ انتهاء حقبة الحرب الباردة وحتى الآن؟ ثانيها: ما هي طبيعة العلاقة بين حلف الناتو والاتحاد الأوروبي في ظل التداخل بين عضوية المنظمتين، فضلا عن تأثير خروج بريطانيا من الاتحاد الأوروبي في مستقبل ذلك التكتل وعلاقته بحلف الناتو؟ ثالثها: ما هي الرؤية الأمريكية للحلف في ظل حكم الرئيس ترامب وتأثير ذلك في مستقبل الحلف؟ رابعها: ما هو مستقبل حلف الناتو في ظل التحولات الإقليمية والعالمية الراهنة؟

 

أولا- التحديات الأمنية لحلف الناتو منذ انتهاء الحرب الباردة:

 

عُدَّ حلف الناتو إحدى أهم الأدوات الغربية عموما، والأمريكية على نحو خاص للتعامل مع مناخ الحرب الباردة، منذ نهاية الحرب العالمية الثانية، بهدف احتواء خطر الاتحاد السوفيتي السابق، سواء داخل أراضيه، أو مناطق نفوذه في شرق أوروبا. كما سعي الحلف للحيلولة دون ولوج الاتحاد السوفيتي إلى غرب أوروبا، أو الشرق الأوسط، أو شرق وجنوب آسيا. ومع انتهاء حقبة الحرب الباردة، بدأ حلف الناتو في ضم أعضاء حلف وارسو السابقين ابتداء من عام 1999. كما شهدت عقيدة الحلف ذاتها تطورا من “الردع” إلى “الدفاع الجماعي”، الأمر الذي استدعي ضرورة إجراء تغيير في التشكيلات العسكرية للحلف، حيث أصبحت أقل حجما، وأكثر سرعة في الحركة(1). وعلى الرغم من أن حلف الناتو لعب دورا مهما إبان حقبة الحرب الباردة، فإن نشأة الحلف لم تكن مرتبطة بالضرورة بتلك الحقبة، حيث نشأ قبل حلف وارسو بست سنوات، طبقا لمعاهدة شمال الأطلسي المنشئة للحلف في 4 أبريل عام 1949 بالولايات المتحدة، والتي نصت على بنود عديدة، لعل أهمها المادة الخامسة من تلك المعاهدة، والتي تنص على أن “أي هجوم على أي من الدول أعضاء الحلف يعد هجوما على كافة أعضائه، بما يعني حق تلك الدولة، سواء منفردة، أو بمساعدة الدول الأخرى أعضاء الحلف، في صد ذلك الاعتداء وفقا للمادة (51) من ميثاق الأمم المتحدة، على أن تتم إحاطة مجلس الأمن علما بما يتم اتخاذه من إجراءات”، فضلا عما تضمنته المادتان الثالثة والرابعة من ذلك الميثاق بشأن ضرورة تعزيز القدرات الفردية والجماعية لدول الحلف، والتشاور فيما بينها بشأن التهديدات التي تواجه أمنها، فرادي أو مجتمعة(2). والجدير بالذكر أن الحلف لجأ مرة واحدة فقط إلى تفعيل مبدأ الأمن الجماعي، وفقا للمادة الخامسة، وذلك عقب الاعتداءات التي تعرضت لها الولايات المتحدة -أكبر أعضاء الحلف- في الحادي عشر من سبتمبر.2001

 

وعقب انتهاء الحرب الباردة، أثير جدل كبير حول مستقبل ذلك الحلف، إلا أنه استطاع التكيف مع متغيرات تلك المرحلة، من خلال تأسيس سلسلة من الشراكات حول العالم، منها مبادرة الحوار المتوسطي بين الحلف وسبع دول من حوض البحر المتوسط، من بينها مصر، ومبادرة اسطنبول للتعاون الاستراتيجي عام 2004 مع دول الخليج، فضلا عن محاولة الحلف تغيير الصورة النمطية التي سادت عن الأحلاف، خاصة إبان الحرب الباردة، فأنشأ جهاز الدبلوماسية العامة المنوط به تغيير الصورة الذهنية السلبية عن الحلف(3). من ناحية أخرى، بدأ الحلف التدخل في بعض مناطق النزاعات خارج أراضي أعضائه، ومنها البوسنة عام 1995 ويوغوسلافيا عام 1999، بالإضافة إلى قوات المساعدة الدولية في أفغانستان “إيساف” والتدخل في الأزمة الليبية عام 2011. ويمكن تفسير تلك التدخلات، سواء لحسابات الضرورة، حيث رأي الحلف أن تلك الأزمات تمثل تهديدا لمصالح دوله، أو لحسابات الواقع. ففي رده على سؤال تم توجيهه لأحد مسئولي الحلف مفاده لماذا يتدخل الحلف في النزاعات الدولية، كانت الإجابة هي “ببساطة لأن الحلف لديه جيش عالمي. أما المنظمة الأممية، فلا جيش لديها”(4).

 

ومع أهمية ما سبق، فإن التحدي الأكبر أمام الحلف، منذ عام 2011 وحتي الآن، كان تحولات العالم العربي، وذلك لسببين، الأول: أن تلك التحولات عموما، ومنها الأزمة السورية على نحو خاص، كان من شأنها توحيد قوسي التهديدات التي يري الحلف أنها تمثل تحديا له، وهما القوس الشرقي، الذي يضم كلا من باكستان، وأفغانستان، وإيران، ودول آسيا الوسطي، والقوس الجنوبي ويضم دول شمال إفريقيا، والدول العربية التي تقع على البحر المتوسط(5). وفي هذا السياق، قال أحد مسئولي الحلف، عقب التدخل الروسي في الأزمة السورية “اعتدنا الحديث عن التهديد الشرقي، والتهديد الجنوبي، ولكن الجبهتين تشابكتا الآن”، وهو الأمر الذي حدا بالحلف لتأسيس قوة تسمي “رأس الحربة” خلال “قمة ويلز” عام 2014، والتي يمكنها الانتشار في غضون 24 ساعة، حيث قال الأمين العام للحلف، تعليقا على إنشاء تلك القوة” إن التدخل الروسي في أوكرانيا كان لحظة يقظة للحلف، لا يمكننا التساهل في أمننا”(6)، فضلا عن إجراء حلف الناتو مناورات في البحر المتوسط في التاسع عشر من أكتوبر 2015، وكانت الأكبر من نوعها منذ أكثر من عقد من الزمان، واقد استمرت خمسة أسابيع، شارك فيها 36 ألف جندي، و230 وحدة عسكرية، و140 طائرة، و60 سفينة(7). أما السبب الثاني، فهو أن شركاء حلف الناتو، سواء في مبادرة اسطنبول 2004، أو الحوار المتوسطي 1994، هم جزء من تلك التحولات تأثرا وتأثيرا، الأمر الذي أثارلديهم الكثير من التساؤلات عما يمكن أن يقدمه الحلف -ضمن تلك الشراكة- لدعم الأمن والاستقرار الإقليمي. وضمن هذا السياق، يمكن تفسير قرار الحلف الانضمام رسميا إلى عمليات التحالف الدولي ضد تنظيم داعش في سوريا من خلال إرسال طائرات إنذار مبكر” إيواكس”، والتي يمكنها مراقبة المجال الجوي على مسافات تتجاوز 400كم من خلال الرادارات التي تحملها على متنها(8).

 

ثانيا- واقع العلاقة بين حلف الناتو والاتحاد الأوروبي:

 

على الرغم من أن الولايات المتحدة، وهي أكبر أعضاء حلف الناتو، قد دعمت تأسيس الاتحاد الأوروبي من أجل تحقيق توازن القوي في أوروبا لمواجهة المد الشيوعي آنذاك، ومع أن 22 دولة من دول الاتحاد الأوروبي هي في الوقت ذاته أعضاء في حلف الناتو، فإنه لا يمكن القول بزوال الحدود الفاصلة بين المنظمتين لثلاثة أسباب، الأول: سعي الاتحاد الأوروبي بشكل دائم للحفاظ على مفهوم “الهوية الأوروبية” لإدراك مؤسسيه منذ البداية أنه ليس حلفا أو كيانا دفاعيا، على غرار الناتو، وإنما هو مشروع سياسي يتضمن جوانب دفاعية وأمنية، ويعكس مفهوم القوة الناعمة، على العكس من حلف الناتو الذي يجسد مفهوم القوة الصلبة، وهو ما تعكسه مواقف المنظمتين تجاه القضايا العالمية عموما، ومنطقة الشرق الأوسط على نحو خاص. السبب الثاني: أنه بالرغم من سعي دول الاتحاد لبلورة سياسة دفاعية تتقاسمها كل من فرنسا وألمانيا، خاصة عقب الانسحاب البريطاني من الاتحاد الأوروبي، فإن هاتين الدولتين لا ترغبان في أن تكون تلك السياسة مستقلة بشكل تام، أو تمثل ندية للحلف، لإدراكهما أن ذلك من شأنه التأثير سلبا في حلف الناتو الذي  تعده دول الاتحاد الأوروبي الضامن الرئيسي لأمنها منذ عام 1949، وحتي الآن(9)، حتي إن الأمين العام للحلف قد أشار في مقال له إلى “تأييده دفاعا أوروبيا قويا، بيد أنه ليس بديلا عن حلف الناتو، بل مكمل له، وذلك وفقا لاقتراح كلود يونكر، رئيس المفوضية الأوروبية، إنشاء جيش أوروبي”. وأضاف “لا نريد جيشا أوروبيا، لأن الناتو يحمي المصالح الأمريكية والأوروبية على حد سواء”(10). أما السبب الثالث، فهو أن التوجه نحو بناء سياسة دفاعية أوروبية يواجه بمعارضة شديدة من جانب الدول الشرقية داخل الاتحاد التي لا ترغب في وجود منافسة مع حلف الناتو، ولا تزال تري أن الخطر الأكبر هو روسيا، بما يمكن معه القول إن الصراع المتجمد هو السمة التي تميز العلاقة بين حلف الناتو والاتحاد الأوروبي. ولا يعني ما سبق أنه لم يكن هناك تعاون بين المنظمتين بالنظر إلى التداخل في العضوية فيما بينهما، أو التحديات الأمنية المشتركة التي تواجههما، ليس أقلها أزمة المهاجرين من مناطق النزاعات. ففي الماضي، كان هناك إطار للعمل المشترك بين الحلف والاتحاد الأوروبي، والذي أطلق عليه “برلين بلس”. وبموجب ذلك، قام الاتحاد الأوروبي بتنفيذ عمليتين هما “كونكورديا” و”أليثيا”. العملية الأولي كانت في مقدونيا، واستمرت خلال الفترة من 31 مارس وحتي 15 ديسمبر 2003، وتضمنت مهمة لحفظ الأمن تابعة للاتحاد الأوروبي، وضمت 400 جندي من 26 دولة، وتولي قيادتها جنرال ألماني، بينما كانت العملية الثانية في البوسنة والهرسك، وقد بدأت في 2 ديسمبر 2004، وبلغ عدد المشاركين فيها 7000 جندي، والذين عملوا وفقا للفصل السابع من ميثاق الأمم المتحدة. وقد كان لهاتين العمليتين أثر كبير في زيادة خبرة الاتحاد الأوروبي في مجال المشاركة في تنفيذ عمليات عسكرية، حيث إنهما كانتا العمليتين الأكثر طموحا بالنسبة للاتحاد الأوروبي على الصعيد الأمني الخارجي(11). وحديثا، وتحديدا في السادس من ديسمبر عام 2016، أي بعد نحو شهر من إعلان فوز دونالد ترامب رئيسا للولايات المتحدة، وقع كل من الاتحاد الأوروبي وحلف الناتو في بروكسل اتفاقا أمنيا يشمل 40 اقتراحا لتعزيز التعاون في سبعة مجالات، منها القرصنة الإلكترونية، والهجرة غير الشرعية، والتعاون الاستخباراتي، وتبادل المعلومات(12). الجدير بالذكر أن حلف الناتو أعلن إطلاق عملية تسمي “حارس البحر” في  المياه الدولية بالبحر المتوسط  بهدف تأمين الملاحة، ومواجهة شبكات التهريب والإرهاب، وهي العملية التي من شأنها دعم جهود الاتحاد الأوروبي، الذي يقود عملية تسمي “صوفيا”، حيث تم الاتفاق على تشكيل تلك القوة في أمرين، الأول: تدريب خفر السواحل والبحارة الليبيين على التصدي لمحاولات الهجرة غير الشرعية، والآخر: تطبيق احترام الحظر المفروض على إرسال شحنات أسلحة إلى ليبيا عن طريق البحر بالاتفاق مع الأمم المتحدة. من ناحية أخرى، وعقب انسحاب بريطانيا من الاتحاد الأوروبي، وخلال الزيارة التي قامت بها تريزا ماي، رئيسة وزراء بريطانيا للولايات المتحدة في 27 يناير 2017، أكدت “التزام الرئيس الأمريكي دونالد ترامب بدعم حلف الناتو”(13). ولا يعني ما سبق أن  دول الاتحاد الأوروبي تراهن بشكل كامل على حماية الحلف لمصالحها، حيث يلاحظ أن كلا من فرنسا وألمانيا تقودان الآن توجها مفاده الترويج لفكرة الجيش الأوروبي الموحد، وعلى خلفية اجتماع مجلس الدفاع الأوروبي في 15 ديسمبر 2016، تم بالفعل طرح خطة لتعزيز الدفاع المشترك، وإقامة مقر لهيئة الأركان العسكرية الأوروبية المشتركة. وقد أقر الاتحاد الأوروبي إرسال قوة للرد السريع إلى الخارج للمرة الأولي، بالإضافة إلى الإعلان عن خطط كبري للأبحاث الدفاعية منذ أكثر من عقد، والاتجاه نحو تأسيس صندوق دفاعي(14)، وجميعها إجراءات كانت تستهدف تحقيق “الاستقلال الدفاعي النسبي”. إلا أن نجاح تلك التوجهات يظل مرتهنا بقدرة الاتحاد الأوروبي على التحول من مفهوم “التعاون المنظم”، وهو آلية عمل الاتحاد  الأوروبي، إلى آلية “التعاون الإطاري”، وهي آلية عمل حلف الناتو، حيث توجد دولة قائد. ويتوقف الأمر في النهاية على مدي التوافق الفرنسي – الألماني داخل الاتحاد الأوروبي على ذلك الأمر(15). والجدير بالذكر أن الاتحاد الأوروبي قد عقد قمة استثنائية في مالطا في فبراير 2017، وقد اتفق القادة الأوروبيون على أهمية  وجود دور ما للاتحاد الأوروبي في النظام العالمي. وفي هذا السياق، قالت المستشارة الألمانية أنجيلا ميركل “إنه بقدر ما نحدد بشكل واضح ما هي رؤيتنا لدورنا في العالم، فإنه يمكننا إدارة علاقاتنا عبر الأطلسي بشكل أفضل”. من ناحية أخرى، وعلى الرغم من أن خروج بريطانيا من الاتحاد الأوروبي هو أمر طبيعي، لأن من حق الدولة الانسحاب أو الانضمام لأي منظمة متي أرادت، فإن المشكلة تكمن في المخاوف من انفراط عقد الاتحاد الأوروبي ذاته، وتأثير ذلك بشكل مباشر في تماسك حلف الناتو، خاصة في ظل إمكانية تولي اليمين مقاليد السلطة في العديد من الدول الأوروبية، والذي يشهد صعودا ملحوظا بتأييد شعبي واضح. ومن ذلك، على سبيل المثال، ما دعت إليه رئيسة الكتلة البرلمانية لحزب اليسار الألماني المعارض من “إلغاء حلف الناتو، وإقامة هيكل جديد بمشاركة روسيا”، وذلك على الرغم من إعلان ألمانيا بعد فوز ترامب أنها سوف تتعاون مع الحكومة الأمريكية الجديدة بصورة وثيقة(16)، فضلا عن تصريح مارين لوبان، زعيمة حزب الجبهة الوطنية الفرنسي بالقول “إنها سوف تقوم بسحب الجيش الفرنسي من الناتو والاتحاد الأوروبي، حال فوزها بالرئاسة في فرنسا”. وفي هذا السياق، تجدر الإشارة إلى استطلاع للرأي، أجري في عدة دول أوروبية في عام 2016 حول الرؤي الشعبية  بشأن مسألة دعم دول أوروبا لحلف الناتو في الأزمات الخارجية الحالية، فكانت النتيجة أن الأغلبية العظمي ممن شاركوا في الاستطلاع (83 في اليونان، و77 في المجر، و67 في إيطاليا، و65 في بولندا) رأت أنه يتعين ترك الحرية المطلقة للدول في التعامل مع مشكلاتها الخاصة(17). إلا أنه في ظل التداخل الشديد بين عضوية الناتو والاتحاد الأوروبي، فإن السياسات الأمريكية المستقبلية عموما سوف تلقي بظلالها على مصالح الدول الأوروبية، في ظل استمرار الولايات المتحدة الدولة الأقوي في العالم، ولاسيما على الصعيد الاقتصادي، خاصة عقب توقيع الرئيس ترامب قرارا تنفيذيا إثر توليه مهام منصبه، يقضي بانسحاب الولايات المتحدة من اتفاقية “الشراكة الاستراتيجية عبر المحيط الهادي”، وهي الاتفاقية التي يجري التفاوض بشأنها منذ ثلاث سنوات، وحتي كتابة تلك السطور، وتوافقت بشأنها 11 دولة تمثل 40 من حجم الاقتصاد العالمي، وهي استراليا، وبروناي، وكندا، وتشيلي، وماليزيا، والمكسيك، ونيوزيلندا، وبيرو، وسنغافورة، وفيتنام، واليابان(18).

 

ثالثا- الرؤية الأمريكية للناتو وتأثيرها في مستقبل الحلف:

 

تلعب الولايات المتحدة دورا مهما داخل حلف الناتو، سواء بالنظر إلى إسهامها بأكثر من ثلثي ميزانية الحلف بما يعني تغيرات قد تشهدها الرؤية الأمريكية للحلف، من شأنها أن تترك آثارا عميقة على مستقبل تلك المنظومة الدفاعية لدول غرب أوروبا بأسرها، أو على الصعيد العملي ذاته. حيث إنه بدون دعم الولايات المتحدة لحلف الناتو في ليبيا عام 2011، لما استطاع التدخل، حيث كان للطائرات الأمريكية بدون طيار دور مهم في تلك العمليات، أو بالأحري أنها مهدت السبيل لذلك التدخل. وبتحليل خطاب الرئيس الأمريكي دونالد ترامب تجاه الناتو، نجد لديه أمرين للاختلاف مع حلف الناتو، الأول: اعتراض ترامب على حالة عدم المساواة في تقاسم الأعباء بين الولايات المتحدة، وبقية أعضاء الحلف بشأن الإسهام في ميزانية الحلف، حيث طالب بقية دول الحلف بزيادة نفقاتها في تلك الميزانية. الجدير بالذكر أن هناك خمس دول فقط من بين 28 دولة أعضاء الحلف تفي بالتزاماتها من حيث تحديد نفقاتها الدفاعية بنسبة 2 في الحد الأدني من الناتج الإجمالي المحلي، وهي الولايات المتحدة، وبريطانيا، واليونان، وبولندا، واستراليا(19)، وذلك وفقا لقمة الحلف، التي عقدت في ويلز في عام 2014، والتي أوصت بالاستثمار في مجال الدفاع بنسبة 2 – 20، أي الالتزام بتخصيص نسبة 2 على الأقل من إجمالي الناتج المحلي لكل دولة للنفقات في مجال الدفاع، وتخصيص أكثر من 20 من ميزانيات الدفاع الخاصة بها للعتاد الرئيسي، بما في ذلك أعمال البحث والتطوير المتعلقة بمجال الدفاع في غضون العقد القادم. وعلى الرغم من أهمية ما أثاره ترامب، فإن تلك الانتقادات ليست بالأمر الجديد، حيث لوحظ أن الولايات المتحدة كثيرا ما وصفت شركاءها الأوروبيين “بالراكب المجاني”، وكانت هناك خلافات عديدة بشأن نسبة الإسهامات الأمريكية والأوروبية في مناطق الصراع. وفي هذا الإطار، تجدر الإشارة إلى الناتج الإجمالي المحلي لدول الاتحاد الأوروبي مجتمعة أقل من 17 تريليون دولار أمريكي، وهو ما يقل عن الناتج الإجمالي المحلي للولايات المتحدة بقيمة تزيد على تريليون دولار. إلا أن هناك بونا شاسعا في الميزانيات العسكرية للجانبين. ففي حين تبلغ النفقات الدفاعية للولايات المتحدة نحو 618.7 مليار دولار أمريكي، نجد أن نفقات دول الاتحاد الأوروبي مجتمعة لا تتجاوز 219 مليار دولار أمريكي، وتلك قضية يمكن أن يكون هناك تفاهمات بشأنها بين الولايات المتحدة وبقية الدول أعضاء الناتو.

 

أما الأمر الآخر، فهو وصف ترامب للحلف بأنه “منظمة عفي عليها الزمن”، وهو ما أثار مخاوف الدول الأوروبية بشأن رؤية ترامب مستقبلا بشأن جدوي وجود الحلف ذاته من عدمه(20)، وهو الأمر الذي قد يرتب تحديات هائلة لأمن أوروبا، خاصة حال قيام ترامب بسحب جزء من القوات الأمريكية التي تتمركز في الدول الأوروبية بما يجعلها في حالة من الانكشاف الاستراتيجي أمام النفوذ الروسي المتنامي، لاسيما دول البلطيق الثلاث “استونيا، ولاتفيا، وليتوانيا”. وبغض النظر عن الخطاب التصعيدي لترامب تجاه شركاء الولايات المتحدة في الحلف، فإن ذلك لا يعني نية ترامب الانسحاب من الحلف، أو الدعوة لإلغائه، وإنما استهدف ممارسة المزيد من الضغوط تجاه تلك الدول من أجل الالتزام بالنسبة المقررة للنفقات الدفاعية “ثمن الحماية” ضمن توجهاته الجديدة عموما، ولم يقصد بها إلغاء الحلف. ومما يؤكد ذلك ما أشار إليه الرئيس الأمريكي، خلال إلقاء خطاب التنصيب، بالقول “سنعزز تحالفاتنا القديمة”. صحيح أنه لم يشر إلى حلف الناتو بالاسم، بيد أن وزير الدفاع الأمريكي الجديد جيمس ماتيس قد أكد، خلال اليوم الأول لتوليه مهام منصبه، “التزام الولايات المتحدة الثابت حيال حلف شمال الأطلسي”، وهو ما شدد عليه أيضا الرئيس ترامب،  حيث أكد للأمين العام للحلف أنه سوف يشارك  في اجتماع الحلف القادم نهاية مايو 2017، مؤكدا “دعمه القوي للحلف”. ويعني ذلك إدراك الولايات المتحدة الأهمية الاستراتيجية للحلف، ولكن ضمن عدالة توزيع الأعباء بين أعضائه، وهو ما لا يعارضه أعضاء الحلف، بل إن هناك تفهما حتي من جانب الأمين العام للحلف ينسستو لينبرج، حيث قال “إن  الرئيس الأمريكي السابق باراك أوباما سبق أن دعا الدول الأوروبية لزيادة إنفاقها العسكري، وقد التزمت  تلك الدول. حيث إنه بعد سنوات من تقليصها، توقف خفض الموازنات الدفاعية في عام 2015، وبدأت تزداد تدريجيا في عام 2016”. من ناحية أخرى، حذر الأمين العام للحلف الرئيس الأمريكي الجديد ترامب من “أن التحرك الفردي ليس خيارا، سواء للولايات المتحدة، أو الأوروبيين”، وأشار إلى” دور دول الحلف في دعم الولايات المتحدة بعد أحداث الحادي عشر من سبتمبر 2001، وكذلك الدعم الأوروبي للولايات المتحدة في الحرب ضد الإرهاب في أفغانستان، حيث بلغ عدد القتلي الأوروبيين ألف قتيل”. ويؤكد ما سبق أن الولايات المتحدة ستظل بحاجة إلى حلف الناتو أكثر من حاجة الحلف إليها خاصة لملء الفراغ الذي قد تشهده منطقة الشرق الأوسط، في ظل توجهات النخبة الحاكمة الجديدة، فضلا عن حالة المخاض الصعب الذي تشهده تلك المنطقة، وتمثل تهديدا لكل من الأمن الإقليمي والأمن العالمي على حد سواء.

 

رابعا- مستقبل حلف الناتو في ظل التحولات الإقليمية والعالمية:

 

مع أهمية ما سبق، فإنه لا يتوقع “تفكك” أو “انهيار” حلف الناتو، وذلك لعدة أسباب، سواء تلك التي ترتبط بآلية عمل الحلف ذاته، أو بالنظر إلى الواقع الإقليمي والدولي الراهن. ويعزز من ذلك خمسة آمور، أولها: مع الأخذ في الحسبان أن التحالفات تنتهي بانتهاء المهمة التي أوجدتها، فإن ذلك لا يصلح لتفسير حالة حلف الناتو. صحيح أن الناتو قد لعب دورا مهما إبان الحرب الباردة، خاصة تجاه حلف وارسو السابق، إلا الناتو قد وجد قبل وارسو الذي تم تأسيسه عام 1955 بست سنوات. كما أن وجود الحلف يعد آلية مهمة للولايات المتحدة ضمن صراعها مع روسيا، خاصة عقب القرار الروسي بضم شبه جزيرة القرم في عام 2014. فعلى الرغم من أن هناك إطارا للحوار، وهو مجلس الناتو – روسيا، الذي تم تأسيسه عام 2002، وتجمدت أعماله عقب ضم روسيا لشبه جزيرة القرم، فإن الدول الأوروبية أعضاء الحلف لا تزال تري في الناتو المظلة الأمنية المهمة ضد روسيا. ثانيها: قدرة الحلف على التكيف مع مناخ ما بعد الحرب الباردة، حيث يصدر ما يسمي المفهوم الاستراتيجي كل عشر سنوات، الأول 1999، والثاني عام 2010. ومضمون ذلك المفهوم هو مراجعة شاملة من جانب أعضاء الحلف للأهداف والتحديات التي تواجه أعضاء الحلف، بحيث يكون ذلك المفهوم مكملا للميثاق المنشئ للحلف، ولا يتعارض معه.  ومن القضايا المهمة التي تضمنها المفهوم الاستراتيجي عام 2010 ما جاء فيه من “أنه من شأن حالات عدم الاستقرار في مناطق ما وراء حدود الدول الأعضاء أن تشكل تهديدا مباشرا لأمن الحلف، الأمر الذي يتطلب درء مخاطر الإرهاب العالمي من خلال التشاور مع أكبر شركاء الحلف”(21). ثالثها: دور الحلف تجاه الأمن العالمي والأمن الإقليمي، في ظل بوادر انحسار الدور الأمريكي عن الأزمات العالمية، وفقا للاستراتيجية الدفاعية الجديدة، التي أعلنها وزير الدفاع الأمريكي السابق ليون بانيتا عام 2012، ومفادها أنه بحلول عام 2020، ستعيد البحرية الأمريكية نشر قواتها من نسبة 50 للمحيط الهادي، و50 للمحيط الأطلسي حاليا إلى نسبة 60 للمحيط الهادي، مقابل 40 للمحيط الأطلسي لمواجهة القوة الصينية الصاعدة، التي أطلق عليها “استراتيجية الدوران”. رابعها: سعي الحلف لتعزيز أدواره الإقليمية من خلال مأسسة شراكاته الإقليمية، ومن ذلك افتتاح الحلف مقرا “لحلف الناتو ومبادرة اسطنبول للتعاون” في 24 يناير 2017  في دولة الكويت، أحد أعضاء تلك المبادرة، حيث سوف يقوم ممثل وأعضاء الحلف بمهام التدريب والاستشارات التخصصية داخل المركز في جميع المجالات الفنية التي يقدمها الحلف للجهات الحكومية في الكويت والدول الخليجية الأعضاء في المبادرة، تحت إشراف دولة الكويت، من خلال جهاز الأمن الوطني الذي سوف يتولي إدارة المركز. ومن تلك المجالات الأمن الإلكتروني، وإدارة الأزمات، وأمن الطاقة والتخطيط لحالات الطوارئ المدنية، وتسهيل برامج الشراكة الفردية للكويت، وجميعها مجالات تأتي ضمن ما يعرف بـ “الأمن الناعم”، إضافة إلى ما يقدمه الحلف من إسهامات في “الأمن الصلب”، كونه منظمة دفاعية بالأساس(22)، فضلا عن دور الحلف تجاه تعزيز قدرات قوات الأمن في دول الجوار الخليجي، ومنها العراق، بالنظر إلى خبرة الحلف في هذا الشأن، حيث أعلن مسئولو الحلف بدء برنامج تدريبي في 5 فبراير 2017 في الأراضي العراقية لتدريب قوات الأمن على “تعطيل العبوات الناسفة” التي يستخدمها تنظيم “داعش”، حيث إن ذلك سوف يتم بالتوازي مع تدريبات يقوم بها حلف الناتو في العراق ضمن التعاون المدني – العسكري. خامسها: التحديات الأمنية التي تواجه أعضاء الحلف في الوقت الراهن، سواء الحدود الشرقية للناتو “تركيا”، في ظل استمرار الأزمة السورية، أو استمرار الأزمة الأوكرانية، وما تمثله روسيا من تحد للحلف.

 

خلاصة القول إنه بالرغم من التحديات التي يواجهها حلف الناتو في الوقت الراهن، والتي لا تنذر بحرب باردة جديدة فحسب، بل اكتمال حزام الأزمات حول مناطق النفوذ الاستراتيجي للحلف، فإن ذلك من شأنه ليس فقط استمرار الحلف، بل السعي للتكامل ودعم الاتحاد الأوروبي، بالنظر إلى استمرار التحديات الأمنية التي تواجه المنظمتين.

 

المراجع :

 

1- مصطفي علوي سيف، 2008، استراتيجية حلف شمال الأطلسي تجاه منطقة الخليج العربي، أبوظبي: مركز الإمارات للدراسات والبحوث الاستراتيجية.

 

2- موقع حلف الناتو، 22 أغسطس:

 

https://www.nato.int/ cps/en/natohq/topics_.89597htm.

 

3- أشرف محمد كشك، حلف الناتو من الشراكة الجديدة إلى التدخل في الأزمات العربية، 1 أكتوبر 2011:

 

https://www.siyassa.org.eg/NewsContent/1502/14/3 %A7%D8%B3%D8%A7%D8%AA/%D8%AD%D9%84%D9%81-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%.88aspx

 

4- أشرف محمد كشك، السياسات الغربية تجاه أمن الخليج العربي، المنامة: مركز البحرين للدراسات الاستراتيجية والدولية والطاقة.

 

5- نزار إسماعيل الحيالي، 2003، دور حلف شمال الأطلسي بعد انتهاء الحرب الباردة، أبوظبي: مركز الإمارات للدراسات والبحوث الاستراتيجية.

 

6- الناتو يستعد للمستقبل بالتركيز على الأمن الأوروبي وزيادة الإنفاق العسكري، 6 سبتمبر 2014:

 

https://aawsat.com/home/article/.175551

 

7- البحر المتوسط يشهد غدا أكبر تدريب عسكري لحلف الناتو، 19 أكتوبر 2015:

 

https://aawsat.com/home/article/.476946

 

8- الناتو: وافقنا على إرسال طائرات إنذار مبكر من طراز “أواكس” إلى سوريا، 11 فبراير 2016:

 

https://arabic.rt.com/news/810771

 

9- أشرف محمد كشك، الاتفاق الأمني بين حلف الناتو والاتحاد الأوروبي: المضامين والدلالات الاستراتيجية، 5 يناير 2017:

 

https://www.akhbar-alkhaleej.com/14167/article/.56391html

 

10- ينس ستولتنبرج، لا لجيش أوروبي ونعم للقضاء على داعش والتعاون مع روسيا، 4 يناير 2017:

 

https://www.alhayat.com/Opinion/Writers/19413474

 

11- أشرف محمد كشك، تطور الأمن الإقليمي الخليجي منذ عام 2003: دراسة في تأثير استراتيجية حلف الناتو، بيروت: مركز دراسات الوحدة العربية، 2015.

 

12- نور الدين الفريضي، اتفاق أمني- أطلسي أوروبي، 7 ديسمبر 2016:

 

https://www.alhayat.com/Articles/18939430

 

13- ترامب وماي يتفقان على دعم الناتو، 28 يناير 2017:

 

https://aawsat.com/home/article/840931

 

14- محمد خلف، مساع فرنسية -ألمانية لإنشاء جيش أوروبي موحد ومخاوف بريطانية على الناتو، 20 ديسمبر 2016:

 

https://www.alhayat.com/Articles/19167321

 

15- مناظرة: ما هي الآفاق الحقيقية لتعزيز الدفاع الأوروبي؟، 25 ديسمبر 2016:

 

https://www.nato.int/docu/review/2016/Also-in-2016/debate-sven-biscop-julian-lindley-french-european-defence-nato-security/AR/index.htm

 

16- دعوة ألمانية إلى إلغاء حلف الناتو، 17 يناير 2017:

 

https://arabic.rt.com/news/859078

 

17- هل ستكتسح الموجة الشعبوية حلف الناتو والاتحاد الأوروبي؟، 7 يناير 2017:

 

https://www.nato.int/docu/review/2017/Also-in-2017/will-populist-wave-wash-nato-european-union/AR/index.htm

 

18- ترامب يوقع على الانسحاب من اتفاقية الشراكة عبر المحيط الهادي، 24 يناير 2017:

 

https://aa.com.tr/ar

 

19- أوروبا متخوفة من تنفيذ ترامب لتعهداته بخصوص الناتو، 16 نوفمبر 2016:

 

https//www.alarab.co.uk/id=94896

 

20- ترامب:حلف الناتو منظمة عفي عليها الزمن ومن الممكن إبرام اتفاقيات جيدة مع موسكو، 17 يناير 2017:

 

https://www.elnashra.com/news/show/1067871

 

21- 2012 Strategic Concept.2010 February.3 (Accessed January 23, 2017). http://www.nato.int/cps/ar/natohq/topics_.82705htm.

 

22- أشرف محمد كشك، مأسسة الشراكات الإقليمية، 28 يناير 2017:

 

https://www.ahram.org.eg/News/576291/4/202158

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  169. Howdy this is kind of of off topic but I was wanting to know if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if you have to manually code with HTML. I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding knowledge so I wanted to get advice from someone with experience. Any help would be enormously appreciated!|

  170. Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates. I’ve been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this. Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.|

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  175. I was wondering if you ever considered changing the layout of your blog? Its very well written; I love what youve got to say. But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people could connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot of text for only having one or 2 pictures. Maybe you could space it out better?|